Trading activity in US prediction markets soared to unprecedented levels during the opening week of the NFL season, with Kalshi and Polymarket emerging as the clear front-runners. Both operators collectively surpassed $1 billion in NFL-related trading volume over the first six days, according to data from DeFi Rate and other financial analysts.
Kalshi reported $983.4 million in NFL trading volume, maintaining a significant lead, while Polymarket also experienced a substantial uptick in user engagement and app downloads. The Kansas City Chiefs’ dominant win over the Denver Broncos on Monday Night Football capped off a record-setting week for prediction market activity.
Record-Breaking Trading Volumes in Sports Prediction Markets
Overall, the first week of the NFL season saw total prediction market volume reach $15.9 billion, according to figures from Bank of America. This marked a 16% increase compared to the previous week, signaling strong growth in the sports betting and iGaming sectors.
Kalshi continued to lead the market with an 82% share for the week ending September 13, although this represented a slight decrease from the previous week’s 86%. Despite narrowing margins, Kalshi held a nine-fold advantage over Polymarket in trading volume. Meanwhile, Polymarket outpaced competitors in app downloads, achieving a 13,509% week-over-week surge and capturing 25% of all category downloads.
Competitive Landscape: Growth Across Major Operators
The NFL’s return drove double- and triple-digit gains across several prediction market and sports betting platforms. DraftKings and Underdog each recorded weekly increases exceeding 100%, while Polymarket, Crypto.com, and Novig all achieved growth rates of at least 30%.
Crypto.com, in particular, benefitted from a 40% weekly increase in trading volume, attributed in part to a recent deal with Robinhood. According to Bank of America analyst Shaun Kelley, Robinhood’s minority stake in Crypto.com and its move to route NFL contracts to OG.com may have contributed to this momentum. These strategic partnerships are changing the dynamics of the prediction market landscape.
Novig also experienced a 34% rise in trading activity, driven by high-profile marketing campaigns and increased interest in sports predictions.
Impact of Primetime NFL Matchups and Regional Enthusiasm
High-profile NFL games and the debut of the new Buffalo Bills stadium are expected to further boost prediction market activity during Week 2. With New York recognized as one of the largest sports betting markets in the United States, enthusiasm around the Bills and other primetime matchups is anticipated to drive even higher trading volumes.
The week is set to conclude with a Monday Night Football clash between the New York Giants and the Los Angeles Rams, a matchup already generating significant attention among prediction market participants. As of midweek, Kalshi’s platform gave the Rams a 75% probability to win, reflecting the intense speculation surrounding marquee games.
Outlook for NFL Prediction Markets
The exceptional results from Week 1 highlight the growing influence of prediction markets in the broader sports betting industry. As more US states embrace regulated iGaming and innovative platforms attract new users, the sector is poised for continued expansion throughout the NFL season.
For additional data on prediction market volumes and industry analysis, readers can review resources provided by Bank of America and sector newsletters such as The PM Pulse.